EVIDENCE-BASED
INVESTING EDUCATION

A PROJECT BY PABLO AURELIO

LEARN HOW TO
MANAGE YOUR WEALTH

Get to know what is known, build a long term plan, and avoid compounding percentage fees

Learn why

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Long-term investing is powerful A 5% yearly return may not sound extraordinary. But over time, it compounds. Over the course of 20 years, it can triple your wealth.

That means that ⅓ of your wealth comes from your savings (your salary, your work) and ⅔ from the returns of your investments.

Investing your money

Year 2005

Real value CHF 1.00

Leaving your money in the bank

Year 2005

Purchasing power CHF 1.00

You can do it yourself It is not about trading or predicting markets. It does not require special skill. It is about building a portfolio that fits you and staying invested over time.

What do we know about investing?

Financial markets have been studied for more than a century by academic researchers, institutional investors, and market practitioners.

The most robust insights are public, replicated, and clearly documented.

The few things that matter

Markets are unpredictable in the short term.
Forecasts sometimes work, but consistent prediction is extremely rare.
Diversification is the reliable alternative.
You do not depend on one company, country, sector, or event.
Most wealth managers do not earn you higher returns than a simple, well-designed portfolio.
You are paying for convenience, not for performance — and it is expensive.
The right portfolio depends on your goals, time horizon, and life plan.
Once those are clear, all the rest can be planned.

Why not delegate your wealth blindly? Because today, the essential pieces are available to individual investors:

The evidence is public.
Low-cost ETFs give access to global markets.
Reliable brokers make implementation simple.
Your portfolio can be monitored over time.

What compounds for you can also compound against you.

This is the cost of delegating or keeping your money in the bank

Year 0

Potential wealth CHF —

Cost of cash CHF —

Cost of manager CHF —

In 3 sessions of 1.5 hours, you can learn:

THE BASICS

Markets, financial products, risk, expected returns, and behavior.

PORTFOLIO DESIGN

Build a portfolio tailored to your situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

IMPLEMENTATION

Execute, automate, rebalance, and manage it over time.

About me

PABLO

AURELIO

I am a senior scientist at ETH Zürich, working in biophysics. I approached investing for the same reason I approach science: to understand how complex systems behave using data, models, and the few ideas that reliably hold up over time.

What surprised me was that, despite long-term investing principles being clear and public, they rarely reach people — obscured by narratives and manufactured complexity that justify intermediaries and recurring fees.

I have spent years teaching, mentoring, and explaining complex ideas clearly. SLOWBALL brings that experience to investing: economics, risk, history, and practical tools — so you can understand your wealth and manage it with confidence.

How we can meet

In person

One-to-one sessions available in Zürich, Switzerland.

Online

Available by video call if you are based elsewhere.

References

These are some of the sources from which I learned the principles I teach. You can study them yourself. I can help you get there faster by turning them into a clear framework you can actually use.

MARKET FOUNDATIONS

[1] Markowitz (1952) — Portfolio Selection.
[2] Sharpe (1964) — Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
[3] Samuelson (1965) — Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly.
[4] Fama (1970) — Efficient Capital Markets.

FACTOR INVESTING

[5] Fama & French (1992) — Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.
[6] Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) — Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers.
[7] Fama & French (2015) — Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model.

LIMITS OF TRADING AND ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

[8] Carhart (1997) — Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.
[9] Barber & Odean (2001) — Overconfidence and Excessive Trading.
[10] SPIVA Reports (ongoing) — Active funds vs benchmark performance.

DATA COLLECTION

[11] CRSP (1960–) — Long-run U.S. stock return database (data back to 1926).
[12] Shiller (1981) — Do Stock Prices Move Too Much…?
[13] Dimson, Marsh & Staunton (2023) — Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

RISK, UNCERTAINTY & EXTREME EVENTS

[14] Kahneman & Tversky (1979) — Prospect Theory.
[15] Mandelbrot & Hudson (2004) — The (Mis)Behavior of Markets.
[16] Taleb (2007) — The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Compound Interest Calculator

Initial amount (CHF)

Monthly contribution (CHF)

Real return (%/year)

Inflation (%/year)

Management fee (%/year)

Currency

Years

What returns should I expect?

Real data from 2003 to 2023 (including the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID shock) shows that portfolios combining stocks and bonds delivered the following average results over those 20 years:

Portfolio	Real return	Volatility	Real wealth factor
Stocks + bonds	+5% to +10%/yr	~9% to ~16%/yr	×2.7 to ×6.7

See layers for more information →

After

20 years

Hover over a curve to get the values

Savings

Saved by you Total money contributed. CHF —

Your wealth if you invest

Learn and Do it Yourself Portfolio value after market returns. CHF —

Delegate to a manager Same savings, after yearly management fees. CHF —

Your wealth if you don't invest

Keep cash in the bank Real purchasing power after inflation. CHF —

Savings Learn and Do it Yourself After management fee Cash in the Bank

LAYERS

Simple visual essays to build financial understanding.

SIMPLE, FLAT-FEE SESSIONS

FREE — 15 MINUTES
CONSULTATION

A short call to understand your situation, goals, and constraints — and to confirm whether this service is a good fit for you.

FOUNDER
PROGRAM — LAUNCH OFFER

A reduced launch version of the SLOWBALL program for the first clients. You receive the full educational structure at a lower price. In exchange, I ask for detailed feedback after each session so the program can be improved with real users.

1. Group session — Foundations
Markets, compounding, inflation, risk, volatility, drawdowns, and time horizon.

2. Group session — Portfolio principles
ETFs, diversification, bonds, cash, factor exposure, taxes, currency, costs, and contribution planning.

3. Individual session — Implementation
Your personal situation, portfolio design, broker setup, execution, automation, rebalancing, and long-term maintenance.

— 500 CHF

CORE
PROGRAM — 3 × 1.5 HOURS

Three one-on-one sessions completed within 3 to 6 weeks.

1. Foundations
Markets, compounding, inflation, risk, volatility, drawdowns, and time horizon.

2. Portfolio design
ETFs, diversification, bonds, cash, factor exposure, taxes, currency, and contribution plan.

3. Implementation
Broker setup, execution, automation, rebalancing, tracking, and long-term maintenance.

— 1,200 CHF

Why flat fee?

A one-time fee may feel significant. But a 1% annual fee on 100,000 CHF is 1,000 CHF every year — before compounding. Over time, recurring percentage fees become far more expensive than learning once.

FOLLOW-UP
SESSIONS — 1 HOUR

For updates as your life plans change — relocation, buying a home, pension planning, new savings capacity, or risk adjustments.

— 300 CHF

EVIDENCE-BASED INVESTING EDUCATION

CONTACT

If you would like to start, ask a question, or simply know more, get in touch.
We can talk and see whether this service is right for you.

LEARN HOW TOMANAGE YOUR WEALTH